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Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely

Wednesday, January 4, 2023
Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely © Reuters Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan Says US Recession Is Likely

(Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan said a US recession is the “most likely outcome” as the central bank tightens monetary policy to curb inflation.

While the last two monthly reports showed a deceleration in consumer-price increases, “I don’t think it will warrant a Fed reversal that is substantial enough to avoid at least a mild recession,” Greenspan — now a senior economic adviser to Advisors Capital Management — said in a question-and-answer commentary on ACM’s website distributed Tuesday.

The Fed raised interest rates aggressively last year in a bid to pull inflation down from a 40-year high, and says it will keep tightening policy until the job is done.

Wage increases, and by extension employment, still need to soften further for the pullback in inflation to be anything more than transitory, Greenspan said.

“We may have a brief period of calm on the inflation front but I think it will be too little too late,” he said.

The risk of lowering rates too quickly is that inflation “could flare up again and we would be back at square one,” Greenspan said. That could damage the Fed’s credibility as the guarantor of stable prices, he said.

“For that reason alone, I do not expect the Federal Reserve to loosen prematurely unless they deem it absolutely necessary, for example, to prevent financial market malfunctioning,” he said.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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07-02-2023 22:11:19 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0677

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EUR/USD

1.0677

-0.0053 (-0.49%)

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 EUR/USD1.0677↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.1975↑ Sell
 USD/JPY131.99↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6892↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3461↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY140.92↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9895↑ Sell
 Gold1,881.45↑ Sell
 Silver22.195↑ Sell
 Copper4.0118↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI75.56↑ Buy
 Brent Oil82.15Neutral
 Natural Gas2.573↑ Buy
 US Coffee C175.40↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,200.75↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,100.33↑ Sell
 DAX15,289.85↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,852.59↑ Sell
 Hang Seng21,298.70↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,942.90↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,154.54↑ Sell
 BASF52.895Neutral
 Bayer58.84↑ Buy
 Allianz218.93↑ Sell
 Adidas152.98↑ Sell
 Lufthansa9.636↑ Sell
 Siemens AG140.97↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG11.483Buy
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