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Detail

Europe Carry Trades Live On as ECB Delays Taper Talk to December

(Bloomberg) -- The message from the European Central Bank is that it’s in no rush to scale back stimulus, giving the region’s bond market a license to rally. The yield premium on...
Europe Carry Trades Live On as ECB Delays Taper Talk to December © Reuters. Europe Carry Trades Live On as ECB Delays Taper Talk to December

(Bloomberg) -- The message from the European Central Bank is that it’s in no rush to scale back stimulus, giving the region’s bond market a license to rally.

The yield premium on 10-year Italian bonds over German equivalents -- a key gauge of risk appetite -- narrowed by the most since May after President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said the ECB would delay a decision over when to end its pandemic bond-buying program, or PEPP, to December.

While she was widely expected to tread carefully in telegraphing any reduction to stimulus, she surprised markets by explicitly pegging a move to the last policy decision of the year, effectively turning next month’s meeting into a non-event.

That’s encouraging traders to pile into carry trades -- a strategy that involves buying higher-yielding bonds to collect the coupon payments -- safe in the knowledge that the outlook is unlikely to change for the coming months.

“I found it remarkable that she explicitly said December and basically ruled out late October,” said Christoph Rieger, the head of fixed-rate strategy at Commzerbank AG, who expects the pandemic bond buying program to be extended next year. That should drive the 10-year Italian-German yield spread to 75 basis points, a level last seen more than a decade ago, he said.

Lagarde also signaled a moderate decrease in monthly purchases for now. Still, the ECB will continue to purchase more bonds than issued by euro-area governments through year-end, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), keeping a lid on yields.

Italy’s 10-year yield premium over its German counterpart was steady at 103 basis points at 8:03 a.m. in London, after dropping more than four basis points on Thursday.

“The main winners are carry traders in our view, as they can look to a quieter autumn,” wrote Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING Bank NV. “Only a further acceleration of inflation can upset this state of play in our view.”

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19-09-2021 18:58:36 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1724

-0.0040 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.1724

-0.0040 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.3736

-0.0052 (-0.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

110.00

+0.29 (+0.27%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.7267

-0.0022 (-0.30%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.2768

+0.0088 (+0.69%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

EUR/JPY

128.97

-0.08 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

1.0933

+0.0022 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Gold Futures

1,753.95

-2.75 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

22.358

-0.436 (-1.91%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Copper Futures

4.2393

-0.0422 (-0.99%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

71.82

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

75.31

-0.36 (-0.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

5.061

-0.274 (-5.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

186.75

-1.40 (-0.74%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,130.84

-39.03 (-0.94%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,432.99

-40.76 (-0.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

DAX

15,490.17

-161.58 (-1.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

6,963.64

-63.84 (-0.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

24,920.76

+252.91 (+1.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,233.92

+1.01 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

IBEX 35

8,760.90

+27.20 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

BASF SE NA O.N.

63.085

-2.125 (-3.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Bayer AG NA

45.07

-0.57 (-1.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

190.23

-2.24 (-1.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Adidas AG

281.60

-3.70 (-1.30%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

8.210

+0.209 (+2.61%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

148.76

-1.28 (-0.85%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.080

-0.025 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

 EUR/USD1.1724↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.3736↑ Buy
 USD/JPY110.00Sell
 AUD/USD0.7267↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2768Neutral
 EUR/JPY128.97↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF1.0933↑ Sell
 Gold1,753.95↑ Buy
 Silver22.358Sell
 Copper4.2393↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI71.82↑ Buy
 Brent Oil75.31↑ Buy
 Natural Gas5.061↑ Sell
 US Coffee C186.75Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,130.84↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,432.99Neutral
 DAX15,490.17↑ Buy
 FTSE 1006,963.64↑ Buy
 Hang Seng24,920.76↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,233.92↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,760.90↑ Sell
 BASF63.085↑ Sell
 Bayer45.07↑ Sell
 Allianz190.23↑ Sell
 Adidas281.60↑ Sell
 Lufthansa8.210Neutral
 Siemens AG148.76↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG11.080↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,600/ 5,665
(5,600/ 5,665) # 809
SJC HCM5,600/ 5,665
(0/ 0) # 830
SJC Hanoi5,600/ 5,667
(0/ 0) # 832
SJC Danang5,600/ 5,667
(0/ 0) # 832
SJC Nhatrang5,600/ 5,667
(0/ 0) # 832
SJC Cantho5,600/ 5,667
(0/ 0) # 832
Cập nhật 19-09-2021 18:58:38
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Cập nhật lúc 18:52:13 19/09/2021
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