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Euro on the Brink of Breaking Last Support Levels Before Parity

Saturday, May 14, 2022
Euro on the Brink of Breaking Last Support Levels Before Parity Euro on the Brink of Breaking Last Support Levels Before Parity

(Bloomberg) -- The euro is now on the cusp of breaking one of the last major support levels before it tumbles toward parity with the dollar.

The shared currency slipped to a fresh five-year low of $1.0350 on Friday, just above the January 2017 trough of $1.0341. A breach of that level would put the euro at the weakest since it was last on even footing with the greenback almost two decades ago.

Strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc (LON:HSBA), RBC Capital Markets and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) are among those who believe the euro-dollar pair will at least test parity, weighed down by worsening growth prospects for the continent as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, the dollar has been supercharged by a hawkish Federal Reserve and haven flows as markets mull global recession risks. 

“The trade-off between growth and inflation has become much more challenging around the world, but the Eurozone faces the most acute pressures,” HSBC strategists including Paul Mackel wrote in a note to clients. They see the euro falling to parity with the dollar by the end of the year, before continuing a “modest decline” during the first half of 2023.

Euro Slide to Parity With Dollar Is Top Options Trade for Funds

The slide in the common currency comes despite the fact that some European Central Bank officials including President Christine Lagarde are signaling they’re ready to enact the first rate increase since 2011 at the July meeting. Markets are wagering on three 25-basis-point hikes from the central bank this year.

“The euro has blatantly struggled to draw any tangible benefits from the increasingly hawkish tone among ECB policy makers,” ING Bank NV strategists including Francesco Pesole wrote in a note to clients Friday, adding that there’s “lingering uncertainty” about whether the ECB would be able to deliver many more hikes given the deteriorating economic outlook.

The euro retraced some of its earlier declines, trading 0.3% stronger against the dollar to recover above $1.04 as of 11:20 a.m. in New York.

The odds of the currency hitting parity in the next 12 months have risen to about 60%, according to options prices compiled by Bloomberg. More than $7 billion in notional value has been staked on that outcome since the ECB’s last meeting on April 14, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

(Updates throughout.)

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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18-05-2022 12:53:58 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0538

-0.0009 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0538

-0.0009 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2485

-0.0005 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (4)

USD/JPY

129.16

-0.22 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.7031

+0.0003 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.2818

+0.0009 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

136.10

-0.37 (-0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

EUR/CHF

1.0476

-0.0001 (-0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,809.68

-9.22 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.606

-0.144 (-0.66%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Copper Futures

4.2300

-0.0023 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

111.10

+1.47 (+1.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Brent Oil Futures

112.97

+1.04 (+0.93%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Natural Gas Futures

8.286

-0.028 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Coffee C Futures

228.63

+3.83 (+1.70%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,741.51

+56.17 (+1.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,088.85

+80.84 (+2.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

DAX

14,185.94

+221.56 (+1.59%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,518.35

+53.55 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

20,631.50

+28.98 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,840.30

+56.87 (+3.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

IBEX 35

8,475.70

+122.00 (+1.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

50.690

+1.395 (+2.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

64.12

+0.91 (+1.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

202.25

+3.43 (+1.73%)

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Adidas AG

183.30

+3.24 (+1.80%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (4)

Indicators:

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.827

+0.131 (+1.96%)

Summary

Buy

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Siemens AG Class N

116.50

+2.90 (+2.55%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

9.538

+0.319 (+3.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0538↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2485Sell
 USD/JPY129.16↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7031↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2818↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.10↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0476↑ Buy
 Gold1,809.68↑ Buy
 Silver21.606↑ Buy
 Copper4.2300↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI111.10↑ Buy
 Brent Oil112.97↑ Buy
 Natural Gas8.286↑ Buy
 US Coffee C228.63Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 503,741.51↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,088.85↑ Buy
 DAX14,185.94↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,518.35↑ Buy
 Hang Seng20,631.50↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,840.30Neutral
 IBEX 358,475.70↑ Buy
 BASF50.690↑ Buy
 Bayer64.12↑ Buy
 Allianz202.25↑ Buy
 Adidas183.30↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.827Buy
 Siemens AG116.50↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG9.538↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,825/ 6,925
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GBP28.150,0329.351,12
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KRW15,7819,22
Cập nhật lúc 12:49:24 18/05/2022
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