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ECB's Panetta warns against overtightening policy

15 Tháng Mười Một 2022
ECB's Panetta warns against overtightening policy © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The European Central Bank (ECB) logo in Frankfurt, Germany, January 23, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The European Central Bank must keep raising rates but needs to avoid overtightening as that could destroy productive capacity and deepen an economic downturn, ECB board member Fabio Panetta said on Monday.

The ECB has raised rates by a combined 200 basis points since July, its fastest pace of policy tightening on record and market pricing suggests it is just over halfway done with the next move in the form of a 50 or 75 basis point hike coming in December.

"If we were to compress demand in an excessive and persistent manner, we would face the risk of also pushing output permanently below trend," Panetta said in a speech in Florence.

"For as long as inflation expectations remain anchored, monetary policy should adjust but not overreact," he said. "The uncertainty surrounding supply and demand dynamics requires us to remain prudent as regards how far the adjustment needs to go."

While policymakers argue that inflation expectations are by and large "anchored" near the ECB's 2% target, a key market-based long-term indicator stands at 2.36% while the European Commission's latest forecast puts 2024 inflation at 2.6%, indicating upside risks.

Panetta also cautioned against moving too fast as ECB action needs time to work its way through the economy and rate hikes are already on course to deduct one percentage point from GDP growth each year until 2024.

In a notable concession to policy hawks, Panetta argued that tightening could even reach a level where the ECB would restrict growth, but this needs solid justification.

"Being prudent does not rule out the possibility of us having to move from withdrawing accommodation to restricting demand," Panetta said. "But in the absence of clear second-round effects, we would need convincing evidence that the current shocks are likely to keep having a more adverse effect on supply than on demand."

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08-12-2022 10:24:59 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0504↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2195↑ Buy
 USD/JPY136.80↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6720↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3675↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY143.70Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9890↑ Buy
 Gold1,795.45↑ Buy
 Silver22.805↑ Buy
 Copper3.8540↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI72.84↑ Buy
 Brent Oil77.97↑ Buy
 Natural Gas5.930Sell
 US Coffee C160.00Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 503,920.90↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,933.92↑ Buy
 DAX14,261.19↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,489.19↑ Sell
 Hang Seng19,346.00↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,807.83↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,290.50↑ Sell
 BASF47.425↑ Sell
 Bayer52.80↑ Sell
 Allianz203.65↑ Sell
 Adidas117.56↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.639↑ Buy
 Siemens AG132.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.966↑ Sell
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