net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

ECB to finally join rate hike club with big move on agenda

21 Tháng Bảy 2022
ECB to finally join rate hike club with big move on agenda © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A symphony of light consisting of bars, lines and circles in blue and yellow, the colours of the European Union, illuminates the south facade of the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, December 30, 2021. REUTERS/W

By Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years on Thursday with a bigger-than-flagged move seen as increasingly likely as policymakers fear losing control of runaway consumer price growth.

With inflation already approaching double digit territory, it is now at risk of getting entrenched above the ECB's 2% target, requiring rate hikes even if that slows - or crashes - an economy already suffering from the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine.

But policymakers appear far from united on just how fast the ECB should move with some arguing that it is already a long way behind the curve, especially compared to global peers like the U.S. Federal Reserve, while others point to a looming recession the ECB risks exacerbating.

The bank until recently was signalling just a 25 basis point increase to be followed by a bigger move in September but sources close to the discussion said a 50 basis point increase would also be on the table on Thursday as the inflation outlook is deteriorating quickly.

Economists polled by Reuters predicted only a 25 basis point increase but most said the bank should actually hike by 50 basis points, lifting its record low minus 0.5% deposit rate to zero.

Complicating the decision, the euro's recent drop to a two decade low against the dollar also boosts inflation pressures, adding to the case for a bigger rate hike even if that ultimately hurts growth.

A larger increase would, however, require the ECB to shield more indebted nations like Italy or Spain from soaring borrowing costs, so a deal on a new bond purchase scheme, already close to being reached according to sources, would also be needed.

When rates rise, borrowing costs on the bloc's periphery often increase disproportionately and the ECB has promised to fight this sort of fragmentation with a new instrument.

While not all the details of this tool are expected to be announced, ECB chief Christine Lagarde is likely to make a firm commitment and must offer financial markets at least some specifics including on the requirements for triggering ECB aid.

In June, when she made only a vague commitment, investors immediately challenged the ECB, pushing up Italian yields to their highest in a decade, forcing the ECB into a emergency policy meeting and a stronger pledge.

The ECB announces its policy decision at 1215 GMT, 30 minutes later than previously, while Lagarde's news conference is scheduled for 1245 GMT, 15 minutes later than in the past.

INFLATION VS RECESSION

Along with the rate hike, the ECB is also set to signal a string of subsequent increases. It already flagged a 50 basis point hike for September and that is likely to remain on the cards.

It is also expected to pledge further moves, though it is less likely to make firm commitments.

"Our central case is for a 50 basis point hike in September, but we think ... the Governing Council will leave the door open for a larger move," BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) said in a note. "We still expect a ... 50 basis point hike in October."

Markets now see almost 100 basis points worth of moves by September and a combined 170 basis points of hikes by the end of the year, or increases at all four meetings, with several 50 basis point moves along the way. [0#ECBWATCH]

The dilemma for policymakers will be to balance growth and inflation considerations.

Confidence has already taken a hit from the war and high raw materials prices are depleting purchasing power, pushing the block towards a possible recession, especially with looming gas shortages over the winter.

Raising rates in a downturn is controversial, however, and could magnify the pain as businesses and households face higher financing costs.

"One problem is that, for example, a gas shutdown would not only hit growth, but would also boost inflation and therefore the ECB may not immediately become more growth sensitive," JP Morgan economist Greg Fuzesi said.

The ECB's ultimate mandate is controlling inflation, however, and rapid price growth for too long could perpetuate the problem as firms automatically adjust prices.

Europe's labour market is also increasingly tight suggesting that pressure from wages is also likely to keep price growth high.

Some central banks, most particularly the Fed, have made clear they are willing to crash growth to control inflation because the risk of a new "inflation regime" setting in is too high.

But if a recession is coming, the ECB needs to front load rate hikes so it gets done quicker.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
13-08-2022 01:41:09 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0264

-0.0053 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/USD

1.0264

-0.0053 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

GBP/USD

1.2142

-0.0069 (-0.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

133.46

+0.47 (+0.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7127

+0.0022 (+0.30%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.2777

+0.0015 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

EUR/JPY

136.98

-0.24 (-0.17%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9665

-0.0040 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,817.95

+10.75 (+0.59%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

20.742

+0.393 (+1.93%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Copper Futures

3.6750

-0.0315 (-0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

92.03

-2.31 (-2.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Brent Oil Futures

98.02

-1.58 (-1.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Natural Gas Futures

8.741

-0.133 (-1.50%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

US Coffee C Futures

227.53

+3.58 (+1.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,776.81

+19.76 (+0.53%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

S&P 500

4,263.74

+56.47 (+1.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

DAX

13,795.85

+101.34 (+0.74%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

FTSE 100

7,500.89

+34.98 (+0.47%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,175.62

+93.19 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,006.95

+30.25 (+1.53%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,400.40

+20.40 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

44.155

+0.730 (+1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

54.15

+2.47 (+4.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.08

+2.08 (+1.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

173.20

+1.18 (+0.69%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.588

+0.062 (+0.95%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Siemens AG Class N

111.84

+1.92 (+1.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.061

+0.197 (+2.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0264↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2142↑ Sell
 USD/JPY133.46↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7127Sell
 USD/CAD1.2777↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY136.98Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9665↑ Sell
 Gold1,817.95↑ Buy
 Silver20.742Neutral
 Copper3.6750↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI92.03↑ Sell
 Brent Oil98.02↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.741↑ Sell
 US Coffee C227.53↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,776.81Sell
 S&P 5004,263.74↑ Buy
 DAX13,795.85Neutral
 FTSE 1007,500.89Neutral
 Hang Seng20,175.62↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,006.95↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,400.40↑ Sell
 BASF44.155↑ Buy
 Bayer54.15↑ Buy
 Allianz181.08↑ Sell
 Adidas173.20↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.588↑ Sell
 Siemens AG111.84↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG9.061↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,720
(0/ 0) # 1,655
SJC HCM6,630/ 6,730
(0/ 0) # 1,663
SJC Hanoi6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Danang6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Nhatrang6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
SJC Cantho6,630/ 6,732
(0/ 0) # 1,665
Cập nhật 13-08-2022 01:41:11
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,801.48+12.330.69%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$91.47+1.92.04%
Brent$97.32+1.291.30%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.220,0023.530,00
EUR23.498,0024.813,92
GBP27.761,8728.945,83
JPY170,70180,72
KRW15,5018,89
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:42 12/08/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán