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ECB sees 'very strong' wage growth ahead in next few quarters

Monday, January 9, 2023
ECB sees 'very strong' wage growth ahead in next few quarters © Reuters. The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog before the monthly news conference following the ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Wage growth across the euro zone is expected to be "very strong" over the next few quarters but real wages are still likely to decline given rapid inflation, a European Central Bank Economic Bulletin article argued on Monday.

A historic surge in inflation has eroded real incomes over the past two years and firms are finally starting to adjust wages, leading to worries that high inflation could be perpetuated if wage setting is adjusted on a more permanent basis.

"Wage growth over the next few quarters is expected to be very strong compared with historical patterns," the article written by staff economists concluded. "This reflects robust labour markets that so far have not been substantially affected by the slowing of the economy, increases in national minimum wages and some catch-up between wages and high rates of inflation."

But the expected economic slowdown and uncertainty about the outlook are likely to put downward pressure on wage growth beyond the near term, the economists argued.

ECB President Christine Lagarde recently argued wages are probably rising at a faster pace than predicted and the ECB must stop this from pushing up longer term inflation expectations.

The bulletin article, however, appeared to play down wage concerns, arguing that real incomes will continue to fall as inflation will be higher than the robust increase in nominal wages.

"Real consumer wages are now substantially lower than before the pandemic and are likely to fall further in the coming months," the ECB concluded in the article.

"This could lead trade unions to demand higher wage increases in upcoming negotiation rounds, especially in sectors with lower wages."

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 EUR/USD1.0566Sell
 GBP/USD1.2151Neutral
 USD/JPY149.02Neutral
 AUD/USD0.6381↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3515Neutral
 EUR/JPY157.46Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9682Buy
 Gold1,913.45↑ Sell
 Silver23.017↑ Sell
 Copper3.6498Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI91.58↑ Buy
 Brent Oil93.29↑ Buy
 Natural Gas2.899Sell
 US Coffee C150.22↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,152.65Sell
 S&P 5004,273.53Neutral
 DAX15,295.65Neutral
 FTSE 1007,644.84Neutral
 Hang Seng17,552.50Neutral
 Small Cap 20001,760.15↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,415.75Sell
 BASF42.185↑ Sell
 Bayer45.97↑ Buy
 Allianz229.90Sell
 Adidas160.55Neutral
 Lufthansa7.670↑ Buy
 Siemens AG131.03↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.387↑ Buy
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