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Don't Lose Sight of the Coinbase Short Squeeze, Says Oppenheimer

By Sam Boughedda Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau said in a research note Thursday that the crypto market is in a crisis but warned investors shouldn't lose sight of the potential...
Don't Lose Sight of the Coinbase Short Squeeze, Says Oppenheimer © Reuters Don't Lose Sight of the Coinbase (COIN) Short Squeeze, Says Oppenheimer

By Sam Boughedda

Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau said in a research note Thursday that the crypto market is in a crisis but warned investors shouldn't lose sight of the potential Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) short squeeze.

The recent turmoil in the crypto market appears to be getting worse, stated Lau, pointing to the collapse of Terra/Luna, the Celsius Network pausing client withdrawals, Three Arrows looking for restructuring and a bailout, Babel Finance suspending redemptions and withdrawals, and Voyager having substantial loan exposure to Three Arrows.

"All this tells us that we are probably not just in a crypto winter but in a crypto crisis. The downward spiral and the fallout from key crypto players are likely to create more strain and contagious risk. With the Fed's tightening policy, total market cap of crypto declined by ~55% for 2022's second quarter, and trading volume subsided," wrote the analyst.

Lau stated that Coinbase is going into one of its most challenging prints as a public company.

"The weak trading volume leads us lower our 2Q revenue forecast for COIN to $779M, which is 12% below the Street's view. We expect rising rates to continue to put pressure on trading volume; therefore, we also lower 2022-23 revenue forecasts from $5.2B and $6.2B, to $3.8B and $4.5B, respectively," he added.

Lau has an Outperform rating on Coinbase shares but reduced the firm's price target from $197 to $90.

He stated the firm's analysis shows that "COIN tends to rebound more (i.e., 6x the BTC movement) than BTC and the broader market when there has been loosening news from the Fed."

"High short interest (12.3%) could fuel a squeeze when the tides turn."

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28-03-2024 18:51:12 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0787

-0.0040 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

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Sell (9)

EUR/USD

1.0787

-0.0040 (-0.36%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

GBP/USD

1.2617

-0.0021 (-0.16%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

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Buy (2)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

151.38

+0.07 (+0.04%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.6492

-0.0040 (-0.62%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

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USD/CAD

1.3593

+0.0027 (+0.20%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

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Buy (7)

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EUR/JPY

163.25

-0.50 (-0.31%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9771

-0.0015 (-0.15%)

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Gold Futures

2,229.35

+16.65 (+0.75%)

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Silver Futures

24.660

-0.092 (-0.37%)

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Copper Futures

3.9952

-0.0048 (-0.12%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

82.42

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Neutral

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Brent Oil Futures

86.30

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Natural Gas Futures

1.708

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US Coffee C Futures

188.35

-2.30 (-1.21%)

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Neutral

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Buy (4)

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Euro Stoxx 50

5,089.85

+8.11 (+0.16%)

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S&P 500

5,248.49

+44.91 (+0.86%)

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DAX

18,492.15

+17.09 (+0.09%)

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FTSE 100

7,951.03

+19.05 (+0.24%)

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Buy (8)

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Hang Seng

16,541.42

+148.58 (+0.91%)

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Neutral

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,114.35

+44.19 (+2.13%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (7)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

11,092.50

-18.80 (-0.17%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.970

-0.280 (-0.53%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Bayer AG NA

28.45

+0.03 (+0.11%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (3)

Sell (9)

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Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

276.93

-0.52 (-0.19%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Adidas AG

206.30

+1.60 (+0.78%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Sell (10)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.275

+0.098 (+1.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Siemens AG Class N

177.02

+0.10 (+0.06%)

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Neutral

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Deutsche Bank AG

14.653

+0.040 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

 EUR/USD1.0787↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2617↑ Sell
 USD/JPY151.38↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6492Sell
 USD/CAD1.3593↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY163.25↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9771↑ Sell
 Gold2,229.35Sell
 Silver24.660↑ Buy
 Copper3.9952Sell
 Crude Oil WTI82.42Neutral
 Brent Oil86.30↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.708↑ Buy
 US Coffee C188.35Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 505,089.85Sell
 S&P 5005,248.49↑ Buy
 DAX18,492.15Buy
 FTSE 1007,951.03↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,541.42Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,114.35↑ Buy
 IBEX 3511,092.50↑ Buy
 BASF52.970Neutral
 Bayer28.45↑ Sell
 Allianz276.93Neutral
 Adidas206.30↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.275Buy
 Siemens AG177.02Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG14.653↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,880/ 8,050
(0/ 0) # 1,398
SJC HCM7,900/ 8,100
(10/ 10) # 1,450
SJC Hanoi7,900/ 8,102
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SJC Danang7,900/ 8,102
(10/ 10) # 1,452
SJC Nhatrang7,900/ 8,102
(10/ 10) # 1,452
SJC Cantho7,900/ 8,102
(10/ 10) # 1,452
Cập nhật 28-03-2024 18:51:18
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DO 0.05S21.01021.430
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Dầu hỏa 2-K21.26021.680
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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EUR26.018,3427.446,04
GBP30.390,9531.684,00
JPY158,69167,96
KRW15,8419,20
Cập nhật lúc 18:46:28 28/03/2024
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