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Dollar extends losses, euro rallies as traders reassess rate hike bets

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar fell further on Thursday to two-month lows after U.S. inflation proved weaker than feared in December, prompting investors to cut crowded long...
Dollar extends losses, euro rallies as traders reassess rate hike bets © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A picture illustration of U.S. dollar, Swiss Franc, British pound and Euro bank notes, taken in Warsaw January 26, 2011. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar fell further on Thursday to two-month lows after U.S. inflation proved weaker than feared in December, prompting investors to cut crowded long positions in the currency.

The euro was a big beneficiary of the move and extended its rise to $1.1479, up 0.3% on the day, while sterling and the yen also added to their gains.

December's monthly U.S. inflation figures published on Wednesday were a fraction higher than forecast and the increase in year-on-year consumer price inflation was as expected at 7% - its biggest jump since June 1982.

Nevertheless, traders do not see these inflation readings as urgently shifting an already hawkish Federal Reserve too much. With at least three rate hikes already in the market price, some investors pared bets on further dollar gains.

The U.S. index, which measures the greenback against a basket of rival currencies, fell another 0.2% to 94.782.

"The scale of the dollar sell-off must surely be partially indicative of positioning," MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny wrote in a research note.

Halpenny said that so much Fed tightening was now priced in for the next year, expectations for longer-term rate hikes were relatively low, which was keeping the dollar in check.

"Investors appear to be signalling that ending QE (quantitative easing), hiking rates four times and commencing QT (quantitative tightening) all in the space of (9 months) is so aggressive that it will limit the scope for hikes further out. It has in fact reinforced the belief that peak Fed funds will be below 2%," he wrote.

Elsewhere sterling , which has been rallying as traders reckon Britain's economy can survive a surge in COVID-19 cases and that the Bank of England is going to get started on hikes as soon as next month, rose 0.2% to $1.3738.

The currency is up more than 4% from December lows and traders have so far shrugged off a political crisis enveloping Prime Minister Boris Johnson who apologised for attending a party in the Downing Street garden during a coronavirus lockdown.

The central bank of New Zealand has already begun hiking rates, and the New Zealand dollar rallied to $0.6876, a gain of 0.4% in the session and its strongest since late November.

Australia's dollar, which tends to perform well when broader market sentiment is improving, added 0.3% to $0.7305.

The Canadian dollar has rallied more than 3.5% in three weeks, gaining with oil prices as investors look past the potential economic fallout of the Omicron variant.

"The dollar does not have to increase because the Fed is readying a tightening cycle," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) strategist Joe Capurso.

"It is not a simple equation of Fed hikes equals dollar increases. The dollar is a counter-cyclical currency which decreases as the world economy recovers."

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18-01-2022 11:46:01 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1334

-0.0073 (-0.64%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.1334

-0.0073 (-0.64%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.3584

-0.0061 (-0.45%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

114.63

+0.03 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7185

-0.0026 (-0.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.2537

+0.0019 (+0.15%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

129.92

-0.80 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0394

-0.0030 (-0.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,812.50

-4.00 (-0.22%)

Summary

Buy

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Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

23.457

+0.539 (+2.35%)

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Neutral

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Buy (6)

Sell (6)

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Buy (4)

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Copper Futures

4.3978

-0.0227 (-0.51%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

84.33

+1.03 (+1.24%)

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Buy

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Brent Oil Futures

87.00

+0.52 (+0.60%)

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Neutral

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Natural Gas Futures

4.335

+0.073 (+1.71%)

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Buy

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Sell (3)

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Buy (4)

Sell (3)

US Coffee C Futures

239.13

-0.52 (-0.22%)

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Neutral

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Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,257.65

-44.49 (-1.03%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

4,594.25

-68.60 (-1.47%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

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Buy (7)

Sell (1)

DAX

15,773.09

-160.63 (-1.01%)

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↑ Sell

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Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

FTSE 100

7,566.20

-45.03 (-0.59%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Hang Seng

24,112.78

-105.25 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,113.45

-48.10 (-2.23%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,780.74

-57.96 (-0.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

BASF SE NA O.N.

67.935

-0.205 (-0.30%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Bayer AG NA

52.06

-0.76 (-1.44%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

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Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

225.90

-1.15 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Adidas AG

255.00

+2.35 (+0.93%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.135

-0.106 (-1.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

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Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Siemens AG Class N

142.64

-3.36 (-2.30%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.960

-0.058 (-0.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

 EUR/USD1.1334Neutral
 GBP/USD1.3584Buy
 USD/JPY114.63↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7185↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2537Neutral
 EUR/JPY129.92↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0394↑ Buy
 Gold1,812.50Buy
 Silver23.457Neutral
 Copper4.3978↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI84.33Buy
 Brent Oil87.00Neutral
 Natural Gas4.335Buy
 US Coffee C239.13Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,257.65↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,594.25↑ Buy
 DAX15,773.09↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,566.20↑ Sell
 Hang Seng24,112.78↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,113.45Buy
 IBEX 358,780.74↑ Sell
 BASF67.935↑ Sell
 Bayer52.06Neutral
 Allianz225.90↑ Sell
 Adidas255.00↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.135↑ Sell
 Siemens AG142.64↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG11.960↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,115/ 6,155
(-5/ -5) # 1,167
SJC HCM6,110/ 6,170
(0/ 0) # 1,183
SJC Hanoi6,110/ 6,172
(0/ 0) # 1,185
SJC Danang6,110/ 6,172
(0/ 0) # 1,185
SJC Nhatrang6,110/ 6,172
(0/ 0) # 1,185
SJC Cantho6,110/ 6,172
(0/ 0) # 1,185
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KRW16,5120,11
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