China Loan Rate In Focus as Traders Watch for Easing Clues

Monday, July 19, 2021
China Loan Rate In Focus as Traders Watch for Easing Clues China Loan Rate In Focus as Traders Watch for Easing Clues

(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark loan rate will be in the spotlight on Tuesday, with market participants divided over the need for more easing to support growth.

The loan prime rate could be lowered for the first time since early last year as a sign of further support for China’s slowing economy, according to four analysts including Ming Ming at the country’s biggest brokerage. Four others see no change in the rate at a monthly announcement on Tuesday.

While data on Thursday allayed fears of a sharp slowdown in China’s growth, speculation persists that the central bank may unleash another round of easing after it reduced the amount of cash banks need to hold in reserve. Any move by the authorities will be parsed by investors who are seeking clues on the health of the world’s second-largest economy and its implications on demand for commodities and trade in the region.

“Banks will have more liquidity to make loans after the reserve-ratio cut, a move allowing them to ask for smaller premiums in lending and making room for a lower LPR,” said Ming, head of fixed-income research at Citic Securities Co.

However, the central bank is widely expected to refrain from flooding the market with cash after it injected just 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) through medium-term loans on Thursday, compared with 400 billion yuan of maturities. It also kept the borrowing cost unchanged at 2.95%. The LPR, which currently stands at 3.85%, is reported as a spread over this rate.

The LPR is seen as China’s de facto benchmark funding cost since a reform in 2019 and is released on the 20th of each month. While the rate is technically decided by a group of 18 banks, the cost is widely regarded to be an indicator for Beijing’s preference on loan rates.

Still, some analysts don’t expect the the LPR to be reduced as it would indicate a change in PBOC’s policy stance, which the central bank says remains unchanged despite its recent RRR cut.

Nathan Chow, a senior economist at DBS Bank Ltd., said the LPR won’t be lowered this year unless the economy weakens more sharply. That’s because a cut sends a stronger signal on policy loosening, which Beijing would want to avoid as it seeks to contain financial leverage, he added.

“The PBOC will wait and see how effective previous stimulus are, before it moves to more aggressive easing,” Chow said.

Here’s a look at analysts’ outlook on LPR:

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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31-07-2021 20:01:47 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1871

-0.0015 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.1871

-0.0015 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.3902

-0.0059 (-0.42%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

109.72

+0.26 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.7345

-0.0050 (-0.68%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.2472

+0.0028 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

130.25

+0.13 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

EUR/CHF

1.0751

-0.0021 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,812.30

-18.90 (-1.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Silver Futures

25.547

-0.235 (-0.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Copper Futures

4.4785

-0.0450 (-0.99%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

73.72

+0.10 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

Brent Oil Futures

75.14

+0.04 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

3.915

-0.144 (-3.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

180.38

-16.12 (-8.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,089.30

-27.47 (-0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

4,395.26

-23.89 (-0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

DAX

15,544.39

-96.08 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,032.30

-46.12 (-0.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

25,908.00

-335.62 (-1.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,223.25

-16.78 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,675.70

-110.60 (-1.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

BASF SE NA O.N.

66.310

-0.535 (-0.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Bayer AG NA

50.36

-0.71 (-1.39%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

210.35

-1.30 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Adidas AG

306.85

-1.92 (-0.62%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.548

-0.332 (-3.36%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Siemens AG Class N

131.82

-1.24 (-0.93%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.685

-0.170 (-1.57%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

 EUR/USD1.1871↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.3902Sell
 USD/JPY109.72↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7345Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2472↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY130.25↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0751↑ Buy
 Gold1,812.30Neutral
 Silver25.547↑ Buy
 Copper4.4785Buy
 Crude Oil WTI73.72↑ Sell
 Brent Oil75.14↑ Buy
 Natural Gas3.915↑ Sell
 US Coffee C180.38Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,089.30↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,395.26Buy
 DAX15,544.39↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,032.30↑ Sell
 Hang Seng25,908.00↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,223.25↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,675.70↑ Sell
 BASF66.310↑ Sell
 Bayer50.36↑ Sell
 Allianz210.35↑ Sell
 Adidas306.85↑ Sell
 Lufthansa9.548Buy
 Siemens AG131.82↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.685Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,660/ 5,720
(0/ 0) # 643
SJC HCM5,655/ 5,725
(-15/ -15) # 688
SJC Hanoi5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Danang5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Nhatrang5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
SJC Cantho5,655/ 5,727
(-15/ -15) # 690
Cập nhật 31-07-2021 20:01:49
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,813.62-16.91-0.92%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2178022210
RON 95-II,III2168022110
E5 RON 92-II2049020890
DO 0.05S1637016690
DO 0,001S-V1672017050
Dầu hỏa1539015690
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$73.40+0.280.38%
Brent$75.06+0.020.03%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.820,0023.050,00
EUR26.579,9627.963,10
GBP31.210,5432.514,30
JPY204,45215,17
KRW17,3221,09
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:26 31/07/2021
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