

(Reuters) -Citigroup is forecasting a near 50% probability of a global recession, as central banks rush to raise interest rates to stamp out inflation that has been partly fueled by the impact of the Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Recession is an "increasingly palpable risk" for the economy, Citigroup (NYSE:C) analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday, while assessing the likely trajectory for global growth over the next 18 months.
"The experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth, and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50%," the analysts said.
Barclays (LON:BARC) weighed in on the current economic uncertainty on Thursday, saying it now expects growth of the developed economies to slow to 1% in 2023, and that the euro area could enter a recession from the fourth quarter of this fiscal year.
"Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is about to run headfirst into a Fed that seems committed to hiking to far above neutral; the ongoing collapse in new home sales is likely a harbinger of things to come," the brokerage said.
Barclays expects U.S. economic growth to slow to 1.1% in 2023, a stark come down from the 5.7% pace of 2021.
Several central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have aggressively raised borrowing rates as the cost of living reaches record levels.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank was not trying to trigger recession, but it was committed to bring prices under control.
Citigroup said that while recession risks were higher, all three scenarios of a soft landing, higher inflation, and global recession (were) plausible and should remain on the radar, with something closer to a soft landing as a base case.
EUR/USD
1.0429
-0.0053 (-0.51%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (4)
EUR/USD
1.0429
-0.0053 (-0.51%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (4)
GBP/USD
1.2098
-0.0076 (-0.63%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (3)
USD/JPY
135.21
-0.52 (-0.39%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (7)
AUD/USD
0.6816
-0.0085 (-1.23%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (1)
Sell (11)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (5)
USD/CAD
1.2888
+0.0015 (+0.12%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (4)
EUR/JPY
140.98
-1.29 (-0.91%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (2)
Sell (10)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (3)
EUR/CHF
1.0007
-0.0002 (-0.02%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (4)
Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (6)
Gold Futures
1,812.90
+5.60 (+0.31%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
Silver Futures
19.823
-0.529 (-2.60%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
Copper Futures
3.6138
-0.0962 (-2.59%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (4)
Sell (8)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (3)
Crude Oil WTI Futures
108.46
+2.70 (+2.55%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (1)
Sell (11)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (9)
Brent Oil Futures
111.48
+2.45 (+2.25%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (9)
Natural Gas Futures
5.620
+0.196 (+3.61%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (7)
US Coffee C Futures
223.95
-6.15 (-2.67%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (5)
Euro Stoxx 50
3,448.31
-6.55 (-0.19%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (2)
S&P 500
3,825.33
+39.95 (+1.06%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (1)
DAX
12,813.03
+29.26 (+0.23%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (10)
Sell (2)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (2)
FTSE 100
7,168.65
-0.63 (-0.01%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (1)
Hang Seng
21,859.79
-137.10 (-0.62%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (1)
Sell (11)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (3)
US Small Cap 2000
1,727.76
+19.77 (+1.16%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (10)
Sell (0)
IBEX 35
8,176.10
+77.40 (+0.96%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (10)
Sell (0)
BASF SE NA O.N.
41.270
-0.255 (-0.61%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (0)
Bayer AG NA
57.35
+0.63 (+1.11%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
Allianz SE VNA O.N.
182.00
-0.12 (-0.07%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (2)
Sell (10)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (7)
Adidas AG
167.64
-1.12 (-0.66%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (7)
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
5.566
+0.002 (+0.04%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (1)
Sell (11)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (7)
Siemens AG Class N
96.00
-1.09 (-1.12%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
Deutsche Bank AG
8.053
-0.265 (-3.19%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
EUR/USD | 1.0429 | Neutral | |||
GBP/USD | 1.2098 | ↑ Buy | |||
USD/JPY | 135.21 | ↑ Sell | |||
AUD/USD | 0.6816 | ↑ Sell | |||
USD/CAD | 1.2888 | Buy | |||
EUR/JPY | 140.98 | Neutral | |||
EUR/CHF | 1.0007 | ↑ Sell |
Gold | 1,812.90 | ↑ Buy | |||
Silver | 19.823 | ↑ Buy | |||
Copper | 3.6138 | Neutral | |||
Crude Oil WTI | 108.46 | ↑ Sell | |||
Brent Oil | 111.48 | ↑ Sell | |||
Natural Gas | 5.620 | ↑ Sell | |||
US Coffee C | 223.95 | ↑ Sell |
Euro Stoxx 50 | 3,448.31 | ↑ Buy | |||
S&P 500 | 3,825.33 | ↑ Buy | |||
DAX | 12,813.03 | Buy | |||
FTSE 100 | 7,168.65 | ↑ Buy | |||
Hang Seng | 21,859.79 | Sell | |||
Small Cap 2000 | 1,727.76 | ↑ Buy | |||
IBEX 35 | 8,176.10 | ↑ Buy |
BASF | 41.270 | ↑ Buy | |||
Bayer | 57.35 | ↑ Buy | |||
Allianz | 182.00 | ↑ Sell | |||
Adidas | 167.64 | ↑ Sell | |||
Lufthansa | 5.566 | ↑ Sell | |||
Siemens AG | 96.00 | ↑ Buy | |||
Deutsche Bank AG | 8.053 | ↑ Buy |
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC # So hôm qua # Chênh TG | |
---|---|
SJC Eximbank | 6,800/ 6,860 (6,800/ 6,860) # 1,805 |
SJC HCM | 6,820/ 6,880 (0/ 0) # 1,766 |
SJC Hanoi | 6,820/ 6,882 (0/ 0) # 1,768 |
SJC Danang | 6,820/ 6,882 (0/ 0) # 1,768 |
SJC Nhatrang | 6,820/ 6,882 (0/ 0) # 1,768 |
SJC Cantho | 6,820/ 6,882 (0/ 0) # 1,768 |
Cập nhật 03-07-2022 01:17:28 | |
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây! |
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới | ||
---|---|---|
$1,809.92 | +3.12 | 0.17% |
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu | ||
---|---|---|
Sản phẩm | Vùng 1 | Vùng 2 |
RON 95-V | 33.360 | 34.020 |
RON 95-III | 32.760 | 33.410 |
E5 RON 92-II | 30.890 | 31.500 |
DO 0.05S | 29.610 | 30.200 |
DO 0,001S-V | 30.410 | 31.010 |
Dầu hỏa 2-K | 28.350 | 28.910 |
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới | |||
---|---|---|---|
WTI | $108.50 | 0 | 0% |
Brent | $111.57 | 0 | 0% |
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank | ||
---|---|---|
Ngoại tệ | Mua vào | Bán ra |
USD | 23.130,00 | 23.440,00 |
EUR | 23.737,79 | 25.045,79 |
GBP | 27.507,86 | 28.656,57 |
JPY | 167,24 | 176,91 |
KRW | 15,54 | 18,92 |
Cập nhật lúc 18:49:42 02/07/2022 Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái |