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Capital flows to EM up in December, China offsets weakness elsewhere - IIF

Tuesday, January 11, 2022
Capital flows to EM up in December, China offsets weakness elsewhere - IIF © Reuters. A U.S. dollar note (bottom) is pictured alongside other currencies including (L-R) the Australian Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Korean Won and China's Yuan in this picture illustration taken in Washington, October 14, 2010. REUTERS/Jason Reed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Net capital flows to emerging markets rose last month from November and fell more than 75% year-on-year, with China the main recipient as investors fear other economies will continue to underperform due to COVID-19, a survey showed on Tuesday.

Non-resident flows to emerging markets reached $16.8 billion last month, compared with $13.7 billion in November and $70.2 billion in December 2020, data from the Institute of International Finance showed.

China kept debt inflows positive, taking in $10.1 billion last month, just enough to edge the $9.6 billion net outflow from the rest of emerging markets.

In stocks, China took in 77% of the net flows last month, with $12.5 billion of the $16.3 billion total.

"Foreign investment in emerging market stocks and bonds outside China has come to an abrupt standstill over fears that many economies will not recover quickly enough from the pandemic this year," said Jonathan Fortun, an IIF economist, in a statement.

"We believe that the outlook is worsened by the Omicron (COVID) variant and expectations of a stronger dollar and higher U.S. interest rates."

Last month, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated its taper of bond purchases and unveiled more aggressive rate hike projections.

Graphic: Foreign portfolio flows into emerging markets- https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-EMERGING/EMBARGOED/jnvweayalvw/chart.png

Preliminary IIF data for the full year showed EM portfolios attracted $380.6 billion last year from non-residents, compared with $382.9 billion in 2020.

Net flows for China were 55% of the total in 2021 and 65% in 2020, the data show. For the fourth quarter of last year, however, China took in 108% of the net total inflows with $52.8 billion compared to a $3.8 billion outflow from the rest of EMs.

"We see non-China EM in a de facto sudden stop," Fortun wrote, confirming the trend for the last quarter.

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21-01-2022 03:02:02 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.1336↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.3568↑ Sell
 USD/JPY113.89↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7194Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2519↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY129.10↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0367Neutral
 Gold1,839.25↑ Sell
 Silver24.560Neutral
 Copper4.5360Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI84.17↑ Sell
 Brent Oil87.12↑ Sell
 Natural Gas3.937↑ Buy
 US Coffee C242.75↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,237.25↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,482.73↑ Sell
 DAX15,696.97↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,501.00↑ Buy
 Hang Seng24,897.87Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,024.04↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,695.55↑ Buy
 BASF67.440↑ Buy
 Bayer52.37Neutral
 Allianz222.53↑ Buy
 Adidas255.65↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.972↑ Sell
 Siemens AG146.05↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG11.519Neutral
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