net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

BOJ may tweak yield control this year if wage hikes broaden - ex-central bank official

13 Tháng Giêng 2023
BOJ may tweak yield control this year if wage hikes broaden - ex-central bank official © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man walks past Bank of Japan's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, June 17, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

By Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) could tweak its yield control policy to dial back monetary stimulus this year if wage hikes spread beyond big firms, making it likely that higher pay will become a sustained trend, its former top economist Seisaku Kameda said.

A growing number of big companies, including Uniqlo parent Fast Retailing, are pledging to raise pay as intensifying labour shortages and rising living costs force them to shift away from their decades-long custom of keeping prices and wages low.

While top firms are likely to offer significant pay rises at this year's annual "shunto" spring wage talks with unions, the key is whether smaller firms would follow suit, Kameda told Reuters in an interview on Friday.

The BOJ will likely scrutinise various data, such as the government's monthly wage data and union umbrella's surveys, later this year to gauge whether wage hikes have broadened enough to become sustained next year and beyond, he said.

"Judging from its communication, the BOJ appears to think that once wage hikes kick off this year, the trend toward higher pay will be sustained," said Kameda, who has deep knowledge on how the BOJ produces economic forecasts, and formulates them into a policy narrative.

"If it sees enough evidence that wage hikes are broadening, the BOJ can say its stimulus has worked. It's possible, then, for the BOJ to point to higher wages in justifying a tweak to its policy framework," he said.

In a quarterly outlook report due at next week's policy meeting, the BOJ may slightly revise up its inflation forecasts for the fiscal year beginning in April as companies continue to pass on higher costs for a wide range of goods, Kameda said.

But a lack of wage data means the BOJ will wait until a subsequent quarterly report in April to better reflect its assessment on whether pay rises will be sustained, he said.

The April report will be released at a policy meeting on April 28, the first one to be held under a new BOJ governor who succeeds Haruhiko Kuroda whose term ends on April 8.

Markets are rife with speculation the BOJ will soon abandon its yield curve control (YCC) policy and start raising interest rates, a view fuelled by its abrupt decision last month to widen the band around its 10-year yield target.

Kuroda has dismissed the chance of a near-term rate hike, arguing that the BOJ must keep monetary policy ultra-loose until wages rise more, and change the current cost-driven inflation into one backed by robust domestic demand.

Kameda, however, said recent comments by BOJ executives, including those by Kuroda, suggest the BOJ now sees cost-push inflation in a more positive light than in the past.

"It's true inflation has been driven mostly by cost-push factors. But it's also true that companies were able to pass on the higher cost to consumers because the economy was strong," Kameda said. "That's an unprecedented change in Japan."

Having headed the BOJ's research and statistics department until 2022, Kameda now serves as an economist at a think tank affiliated with Japan's Sompo holdings.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
05-02-2023 01:51:53 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0795

-0.0115 (-1.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0795

-0.0115 (-1.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2054

-0.0169 (-1.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

131.19

+2.54 (+1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6923

-0.0153 (-2.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3399

+0.0084 (+0.63%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

141.62

+1.26 (+0.90%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

EUR/CHF

0.9996

+0.0036 (+0.36%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,877.70

-53.10 (-2.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

22.390

-1.225 (-5.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.0312

-0.0598 (-1.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

73.23

-2.65 (-3.49%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

79.82

-2.35 (-2.86%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

2.385

-0.071 (-2.89%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

173.63

-4.27 (-2.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,257.98

+16.86 (+0.40%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

4,136.48

-43.28 (-1.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

DAX

15,476.43

-32.76 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,901.80

+81.64 (+1.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

21,660.47

-297.89 (-1.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,985.53

-15.69 (-0.78%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

9,225.60

-4.10 (-0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

54.040

+0.200 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

56.68

-0.12 (-0.21%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

220.75

-0.95 (-0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

161.06

+3.14 (+1.99%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.902

+0.009 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

145.02

+1.30 (+0.90%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.530

+0.074 (+0.65%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

 EUR/USD1.0795Buy
 GBP/USD1.2054↑ Buy
 USD/JPY131.19↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6923↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3399↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY141.62Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9996Buy
 Gold1,877.70↑ Sell
 Silver22.390↑ Sell
 Copper4.0312↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI73.23Buy
 Brent Oil79.82Buy
 Natural Gas2.385Sell
 US Coffee C173.63Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,257.98↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,136.48↑ Buy
 DAX15,476.43↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,901.80↑ Buy
 Hang Seng21,660.47↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,985.53↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,225.60Neutral
 BASF54.040↑ Buy
 Bayer56.68Neutral
 Allianz220.75↑ Buy
 Adidas161.06↑ Buy
 Lufthansa9.902↑ Sell
 Siemens AG145.02↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG11.530Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,670/ 6,730
(6,670/ 6,730) # 1,290
SJC HCM6,640/ 6,740
(0/ 0) # 1,433
SJC Hanoi6,640/ 6,742
(0/ 0) # 1,435
SJC Danang6,640/ 6,742
(0/ 0) # 1,435
SJC Nhatrang6,640/ 6,742
(0/ 0) # 1,435
SJC Cantho6,640/ 6,742
(0/ 0) # 1,435
Cập nhật 05-02-2023 01:51:55
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,865.94-49.17-2.57%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.00024.480
RON 95-III23.14023.600
E5 RON 92-II22.32022.760
DO 0.05S22.52022.970
DO 0,001S-V24.28024.760
Dầu hỏa 2-K22.57023.020
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.250,0023.620,00
EUR24.892,6426.286,54
GBP27.897,1229.086,72
JPY177,36187,76
KRW16,5420,16
Cập nhật lúc 18:52:43 04/02/2023
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán