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BOE to Mark Independence With Rate Rise and QT: Decision Guide

05 Tháng Năm 2022
BOE to Mark Independence With Rate Rise and QT: Decision Guide © Reuters BOE to Mark Independence With Rate Rise and QT: Decision Guide

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The Bank of England is set to mark a major birthday with two big decisions, balancing its fight against inflation with keeping the recovery from pandemic on track.

On the eve of the 25th anniversary of its independence, the U.K. central bank is widely expected to hike interest rates to 1% -- the highest since the financial crisis -- and lay out how it intends to take unchartered steps toward unwinding more than a decade of bond purchases.

Officials led by Governor Andrew Bailey may also unveil forecasts showing slower growth and rising inflation, representing it biggest challenge since the Treasury granted the BOE authority to set interest rates in 1997.

Bailey, who was an aide to then-Governor Eddie George at that time, has described the bank’s challenge as “a very tight line between tackling inflation and the output effects of the real income shock, and the risk that could create a recession.”

A decision is due at noon London time, and Bailey will host a press conference a half hour later.

The outlook Bailey delivers will illustrate the turmoil buffeting the U.K. economy. Inflation is poised to hit double digits for the first time since the 1980s, and a surge in the cost of living is sapping spending power and growth.

Martin Weale, a former BOE rate setter, said the BOE appears to be “more confident than I am that inflation will suck demand out of the economy and will not be met by big wage rises. The labor market is very tight.” Weale, a professor at King’s College London, said he would vote for a quarter point hike.

While markets and economists are convinced the BOE will respond to that challenge this month by hiking rates for a fourth straight meeting to 1%, predictions for the way MPC will split highlights disagreement among officials about how much monetary tightening is needed and when.

The most popular prediction among economists is for a repeat of March’s 8-1 vote to hike by 25 basis points. About 30% of see one or more policy members voting for a move double that size. In total, analysts have scenarios for eight different vote splits, including some with a rare three-way division.

A hike to 1% would also take the bank to the threshold for considering active sales of their government bond holdings, which peaked last year at 875 billion pounds ($1.1 trillion). Policy makers have started to let bonds that mature roll off the balance sheet.

No other major-economy central bank has yet sold assets accumulated under quantitative easing since the programs started in 2008. Investors have expressed concern that active sales will unnerve markets without a detailed plan.

“One of the purposes of QE was to flatten the yield curve,” said Charles Goodhart, another former BOE policy maker. “So tightening will make the yield curve steeper. The question is whether sales would cause indigestion in the market and cause it to misbehave.”

To provide clarity, the BOE is expected to launch a consultation or review into active sales alongside Thursday’s rate decision.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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21-05-2022 03:58:32 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0558

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EUR/USD

1.0558

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Neutral

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GBP/USD

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USD/JPY

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AUD/USD

0.7043

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USD/CAD

1.2836

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EUR/JPY

135.07

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EUR/CHF

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Gold Futures

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Silver Futures

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

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Brent Oil Futures

112.69

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Natural Gas Futures

8.072

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US Coffee C Futures

216.48

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,657.03

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S&P 500

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US Small Cap 2000

1,768.35

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IBEX 35

8,484.50

+78.50 (+0.93%)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

48.850

-0.010 (-0.02%)

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Bayer AG NA

63.74

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Buy

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

195.58

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Buy

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Adidas AG

172.80

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Buy

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.852

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↑ Sell

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Siemens AG Class N

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9.362

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Buy (8)

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 EUR/USD1.0558Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2493↑ Buy
 USD/JPY127.93Buy
 AUD/USD0.7043↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2836↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY135.07Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0294Buy
 Gold1,845.10↑ Buy
 Silver21.740↑ Buy
 Copper4.3042Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI110.32↑ Sell
 Brent Oil112.69↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.072↑ Sell
 US Coffee C216.48↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,657.03↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,901.36↑ Buy
 DAX13,981.91Buy
 FTSE 1007,389.98Neutral
 Hang Seng20,717.24↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,768.35↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,484.50Neutral
 BASF48.850Buy
 Bayer63.74Buy
 Allianz195.58Buy
 Adidas172.80Buy
 Lufthansa6.852↑ Sell
 Siemens AG115.08Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.362Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,875/ 6,975
(0/ 0) # 1,795
SJC HCM6,890/ 6,980
(0/ 0) # 1,798
SJC Hanoi6,890/ 6,982
(0/ 0) # 1,800
SJC Danang6,890/ 6,982
(0/ 0) # 1,800
SJC Nhatrang6,890/ 6,982
(0/ 0) # 1,800
SJC Cantho6,890/ 6,982
(0/ 0) # 1,800
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