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  4. Bear Market Remains Incomplete, Morgan Stanley Analyst Warns
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Bear Market Remains Incomplete, Morgan Stanley Analyst Warns

By Senad Karaahmetovic Morgan Stanley’s top equity strategist has once again warned investors about continuing to ride the ongoing stock market rally. In a research note sent to...
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Bear Market Remains Incomplete, Morgan Stanley Analyst Warns © Reuters. Bear Market Remains Incomplete, Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Warns

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Morgan Stanley’s top equity strategist has once again warned investors about continuing to ride the ongoing stock market rally.

In a research note sent to clients, he admits he has been surprised by the magnitude of this bear market rally.

“In our view, it's been driven by a combination of better than feared 2Q earnings (although revisions/price came down into the quarter), light positioning and continued hope for a less hawkish Fed path. In our view, the last catalyst is historically the one capable of driving significant late cycle rallies even amid deteriorating fundamentals. The most recent example of this occurred in 2019,” he said.

However, he remains pessimistic as inflation is “not likely to come off at a pace fast enough to spur the type of sustained Fed pause the equity market is already discounting.” He sees fewer and fewer chances of a dovish policy path after the strong July labor report.

At the same time, the equity valuation is “now significantly disconnected from fundamentals.”

“Our fair value framework suggests the market's ERP is ~150 basis points too low based on current data. The message from us for the next several months remains: risk/reward is unattractive,and this bear market remains incomplete,” he emphasized in a note.

The equity strategist sees the earnings disappointment as the key driver of the next leg lower in stocks.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Neutral

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

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Copper Futures

4.5305

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

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S&P 500

5,035.69

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Buy (0)

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IBEX 35

10,854.40

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49.155

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Adidas AG

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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