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Barclays forecasts contraction in fourth quarter for major economies

16 Tháng Chín 2022
Barclays forecasts contraction in fourth quarter for major economies © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A branch of Barclays Bank is seen, in London, Britain, February 23, 2022. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls/File Photo
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(Reuters) - Global growth is heading for an "increasingly synchronous downturn", economists at Barclays (LON:BARC) said on Thursday, citing a deepening energy crisis in Europe, continued lockdowns in China and tightening financing conditions across economies.

Barclays forecast a slowdown in global growth to 2.2% in 2023 versus 2.8% this year, and warned that it expects advanced economies to contract in the fourth quarter with zero growth next year. Global growth stood at 6.3% in 2021.

Central banks globally have been rapidly tightening monetary policies, on the heels of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that exacerbated supply-chain issues, to keep soaring inflation in check as economies are still recovering from the pandemic.

A slowdown in global growth will bring the world "close to a global recession," Barclays said, adding that much of the bad news was already out of the way.

"This is a poor economic outlook. But it could have been worse. There is a line between gloom and doom, and that is where we believe the global economy sits."

Indicators are sending mixed signals about the strength of the U.S. economy amid the Fed's tightening cycle, the brokerage said, adding that the United States will only be "narrowly" avoiding an outright recession next year.

Barclays expects a recession in Europe in the first half of 2023 and forecast that China will see a small bounce in fourth-quarter GDP growth, below its target of 5.5%, with the brokerage also cutting the country's 2023 GDP growth by 80 basis points to 4.5%.

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03-10-2022 17:52:55 (UTC+7)

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    EUR/USD 0.9777 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.1191 Sell  
    USD/JPY 145.13 Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6448 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3765 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 141.89 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9680 Neutral  
    Gold 1,672.75 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 19.392 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.3732 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 82.65 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 88.37 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 6.575 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 220.15 Neutral  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,292.75 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 3,585.62 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,037.12 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 6,851.85 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,079.51 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,667.27 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 7,358.50 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 40.148 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 47.54 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 160.32 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 116.15 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 5.554 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 98.88 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.406 ↑ Buy  
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