net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 50 bps in Dec, peak at 4.25% in Q1- Reuters poll

23 Tháng Mười Một 2022
Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 50 bps in Dec, peak at 4.25% in Q1- Reuters poll © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A general view of the Bank of England building, in London, Britain, August 4, 2022. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England will press on with interest rate rises to battle inflation even though Britain is heading into a long albeit shallow recession, with consumers facing an extended cost of living crisis, a Reuters poll of economists found.

Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced more pain in an autumn financial statement last week, with tax rises now and spending cuts further ahead, so any relief on borrowing costs would have been welcomed by indebted households.

After adding 75 basis points to Bank Rate earlier this month the Monetary Policy Committee will add a more modest 50 basis points on Dec. 15, taking it to 3.50%, the Nov. 18-22 poll found. In an October poll, the rate was expected to end this year at 3.75%.

Over 75% of respondents, 43 of 56, opted for 50 basis points while 13 said 75.

"In terms of being able to pivot back to 50 I think there was enough in the autumn statement to calm some of the fears at the Bank of England on the outlook for next year," said James Smith at ING.

Hunt's budget plan came after the blow dealt to Britain's fiscal reputation by former prime minister Liz Truss' unfunded tax cuts, which sent the pound to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar and forced the BoE to prop up bond markets.

"When you listen to what some of the MPC have been saying, they tried to send a very strong dovish signal in November and that was to try and take some of the heat into what is priced into markets. It does also depend a little on the Fed," said ING's Smith.

At the Nov. 3 meeting Governor Andrew Bailey told investors, who were pricing in a peak around 4.70%, their rate hike bets looked too big.

The United States Federal Reserve has made four consecutive 75 basis point increases but was expected to shift down the pace to a 50 basis point move next month.

December's move by the BoE will be followed by another 75 basis point lift across its two meetings next quarter, with the poll suggesting the Bank will then pause at 4.25%, matching the terminal rate given last month.

But when asked about the risk to their terminal rate forecast, 15 said it was that it would come later and be higher than they expect and seven said that it would come earlier and be lower.

The Bank's dilemma is inflation is running at more than five times its mandated 2% target - 11.1% in October - and was not expected to reach the goal until at least 2025, yet it is raising interest rates as the country enters recession.

Britons have been hit by soaring energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, food prices rising at the fastest pace since 1980, and disruptions to supply chains exacerbated by Britain's departure from the European Union.

Asked how long before the cost of living crisis eases significantly, six said it would be 6-12 months while ten said it would be 1-2 years. One said it would be over two years.

When asked about the probability of a recession within a year, poll respondents gave a median response of 90%, sharply higher than the 75% given in October.

Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts supported that number, with the economy predicted to shrink 0.4% this quarter and next and 0.3% in the following one. A 0.2% contraction was pencilled in for last quarter.

Across next year the economy was expected to contract 0.9% while in 2024 it will expand 0.9%, the median view from the poll of 60 economists predicted.

Inflation will peak at 10.7% this quarter, the poll found. It will then gradually fall, dipping to 10.0% next quarter and then to 7.7%, 6.5% and 4.5% in the following quarters.

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
06-12-2022 05:35:07 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0494

0.0003 (0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0494

0.0003 (0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2191

+0.0003 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

136.73

-0.01 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6701

+0.0004 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3588

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/JPY

143.49

+0.04 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9890

+0.0003 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,781.50

-28.10 (-1.55%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

22.430

-0.820 (-3.53%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.7885

-0.0620 (-1.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

77.37

-2.61 (-3.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Brent Oil Futures

83.03

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Natural Gas Futures

5.624

-0.657 (-10.46%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

163.42

+0.82 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,956.53

-21.37 (-0.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

3,998.84

-72.86 (-1.79%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

Sell (0)

DAX

14,447.61

-81.78 (-0.56%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,567.54

+11.31 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Hang Seng

19,518.29

+842.94 (+4.51%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,835.79

-57.05 (-3.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

8,370.10

-7.80 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

BASF SE NA O.N.

47.970

-0.760 (-1.56%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Bayer AG NA

53.09

-1.75 (-3.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

203.00

+0.35 (+0.17%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

Adidas AG

122.06

-2.20 (-1.77%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.766

+0.028 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

135.44

+0.74 (+0.55%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.150

+0.126 (+1.26%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

 EUR/USD1.0494↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2191↑ Buy
 USD/JPY136.73↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6701↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3588↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY143.49↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9890↑ Buy
 Gold1,781.50↑ Buy
 Silver22.430↑ Buy
 Copper3.7885↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI77.37↑ Sell
 Brent Oil83.03Sell
 Natural Gas5.624Sell
 US Coffee C163.42↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,956.53↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,998.84↑ Buy
 DAX14,447.61↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,567.54↑ Sell
 Hang Seng19,518.29Buy
 Small Cap 20001,835.79↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,370.10↑ Sell
 BASF47.970Sell
 Bayer53.09↑ Buy
 Allianz203.00Buy
 Adidas122.06↑ Sell
 Lufthansa7.766↑ Buy
 Siemens AG135.44↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.150Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,610/ 6,680
(0/ 0) # 1,473
SJC HCM6,625/ 6,705
(0/ 0) # 1,500
SJC Hanoi6,625/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,502
SJC Danang6,625/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,502
SJC Nhatrang6,625/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,502
SJC Cantho6,625/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,502
Cập nhật 06-12-2022 05:35:09
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,769.17-29.68-1.65%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.83024.300
RON 95-III22.70023.150
E5 RON 92-II21.67022.100
DO 0.05S23.21023.670
DO 0,001S-V25.19025.690
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.56024.030
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$77.37+5.096.58%
Brent$83.08+5.046.07%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.760,0024.070,00
EUR24.574,8925.950,11
GBP28.594,5429.812,86
JPY172,03182,11
KRW15,9819,47
Cập nhật lúc 18:53:14 05/12/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán