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Bank of England interest rate could hit 4% or more, ex-policymakers warn

12 Tháng Năm 2022
Bank of England interest rate could hit 4% or more, ex-policymakers warn © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man walks past the Bank of England (BoE) in London, Britain, December 16, 2021. REUTERS/Toby Melville

By David Milliken

LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England will probably need to raise interest rates much more sharply than financial markets expect to get soaring inflation under control, former policymakers said on Wednesday.

The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised its key interest rate four times since December to 1% - the highest level since 2009 - but still expects inflation to exceed 10% by the end of this year.

"In my view the nominal interest rate - the short-term interest rate the MPC controls - will have to go up at least 250 to 300 basis points from here," Adam Posen, who served on the MPC from 2009 to 2012, told the British parliament's Treasury Committee.

That would mean an interest rate of 3.5% to 4% - well above the 2.5% peak priced in by financial markets for June 2023.

Posen, who is now the president of Washington's Peterson Institute for International Economics, said unemployment needed to go higher - effectively requiring a recession - for inflation to fall back swiftly to the BoE's 2% target.

Last month the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would see weaker growth and higher inflation than any other major advanced economy next year.

While countries globally are suffering from soaring energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Posen said the extra inflation in Britain appeared to be mostly due to Brexit.

The BoE's own forecasts imply interest rates might rise less than markets expect, as it predicts inflation will significantly undershoot its 2% target in three years if interest rates follow the path expected by markets. Annual consumer price inflation in Britain hit 7.0% in March, the highest reading in 30 years.

Current MPC members typically do not talk directly about how high interest rates might go.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Kristin Forbes, who served on the MPC from 2014 to 2017, told lawmakers she was concerned the BoE had not been clear enough about the scale of rate hikes that might come.

"Anyone who is buying a home or might have a variable interest rate on a credit card needs to be aware that rates could go up to the 3%-type level that Adam has mentioned," she said.

Charles Goodhart, who served on the BoE's first MPC after it gained independence in 1997 and has taught at the London School of Economics, speculated that rates might need to go even higher.

"It will take nominal interest rates well above 4% to actually start having a significant effect on the housing market, and my bet would be that we will go over 5%," Goodhart told the parliamentary hearing into inflation and economic policy.

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23-05-2022 13:25:27 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0605

+0.0045 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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EUR/USD

1.0605

+0.0045 (+0.43%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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Buy (10)

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GBP/USD

1.2569

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Buy (10)

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USD/JPY

127.84

-0.01 (-0.01%)

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Neutral

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Buy (7)

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Buy (3)

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AUD/USD

0.7111

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Buy (7)

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USD/CAD

1.2789

-0.0046 (-0.36%)

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Sell

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EUR/JPY

135.55

+0.54 (+0.40%)

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EUR/CHF

1.0313

+0.0017 (+0.17%)

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Gold Futures

1,853.74

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Silver Futures

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4.3195

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

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US Coffee C Futures

216.48

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,657.03

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S&P 500

3,901.36

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DAX

13,981.91

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Hang Seng

20,504.50

-212.74 (-1.03%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,773.27

-2.96 (-0.17%)

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IBEX 35

8,484.50

+78.50 (+0.93%)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

48.850

-0.010 (-0.02%)

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63.74

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

195.58

+0.78 (+0.40%)

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Adidas AG

172.80

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.852

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Siemens AG Class N

115.08

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9.362

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 EUR/USD1.0605↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2569↑ Buy
 USD/JPY127.84Neutral
 AUD/USD0.7111↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2789Sell
 EUR/JPY135.55↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0313↑ Buy
 Gold1,853.74↑ Buy
 Silver21.956↑ Buy
 Copper4.3195↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI111.05↑ Sell
 Brent Oil110.78↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.187↑ Sell
 US Coffee C216.48↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,657.03↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,901.36↑ Buy
 DAX13,981.91Buy
 FTSE 1007,389.98Neutral
 Hang Seng20,504.50↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,773.27↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,484.50Neutral
 BASF48.850Buy
 Bayer63.74Buy
 Allianz195.58Buy
 Adidas172.80Buy
 Lufthansa6.852↑ Sell
 Siemens AG115.08Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.362Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,880/ 6,980
(5/ 5) # 1,771
SJC HCM6,895/ 6,985
(0/ 0) # 1,776
SJC Hanoi6,895/ 6,987
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(0/ 0) # 1,778
Cập nhật 23-05-2022 13:25:30
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,854.63+8.810.48%
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Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V30.58031.190
RON 95-III29.98030.570
E5 RON 92-II28.95029.520
DO 0.05S26.65027.180
DO 0,001S-V27.45027.990
Dầu hỏa 2-K25.16025.660
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$110.58-0.88-0.80%
Brent$111.32-0.78-0.70%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.005,0023.315,00
EUR23.899,8625.238,69
GBP28.277,1029.483,51
JPY176,47186,83
KRW15,8019,25
Cập nhật lúc 13:21:01 23/05/2022
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