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Australia's central bank drastically raises inflation forecasts, flags more rate hikes

06 Tháng Năm 2022

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Friday drastically revised up forecasts for inflation, foreshadowing how far interest rates might have to rise to bring the country's cost of living crisis under control.

In its quarterly statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned core inflation could now hit 4.6% by December, a startling two percentage points higher than its previous forecast made in February.

That would be well above the RBA's 2-3% target band and inflation was only seen returning to the top of the band by mid- 2024, suggesting a lengthy tightening cycle was in store.

At the same time, unemployment was now forecast to drop further to 50-year lows of 3.6% over the year ahead and finally push up wages after years of miserly gains.

Annual wage growth is seen accelerating to 3.0% by the end of this year, from the current 2.3%, and to 3.7% by mid-2024.

It was this potent mix that led the RBA Board this week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.35%, the first increase in more than a decade, and to flag a lot more hikes ahead.

"The Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure inflation in Australia returns to target over time," RBA Governor Philip Lowe wrote in the 68-page statement. "This will require a further lift in interest rates over the period ahead."

Markets are pricing in another hike to at least 0.60% in June and then a move a month to reach 2.75% by Christmas. The RBA's own forecasts are based on rates of 1.75% by year end and a peak around 2.5% by the end of 2023.

Lowe himself nominated 2.5% as a rate that would be neutral for the economy, but was noncommittal on how fast, or whether, they might get there.

NOT ALONE

The RBA is hardly alone in this predicament with the Federal Reserve hiking by half a point this week and flagging similar moves in June and July. The Bank of England also hiked on Thursday but was notably more downbeat on the economic outlook.

The sudden rise in Australian borrowing costs has been unwelcome news to Prime Minister Scott Morrison as he fights a tough election campaign based squarely on economic management.

It was also a blow for Australian households who hold a record A$2 trillion of mortgage debt amid one of the biggest housing bubbles in the country's history.

The RBA is confident consumers can weather these ill winds, thanks in part to an extra A$272 billion of savings households built up during the pandemic.

The central bank forecast the economy would grow a healthy 4.2% this year, before slowing to 2.0% in 2023 as rising rates, higher inflation and a moderation in house prices take a toll.

There were plenty of unknowns, however, ranging from new coronavirus variants, to the conflict in Ukraine, global supply bottlenecks and how households would react to the new reality of higher inflation.

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23-05-2022 11:39:44 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0594

+0.0034 (+0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0594

+0.0034 (+0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2549

+0.0062 (+0.49%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

127.38

-0.47 (-0.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.7090

+0.0057 (+0.81%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.2800

-0.0037 (-0.28%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

EUR/JPY

134.94

-0.07 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

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EUR/CHF

1.0293

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Buy (1)

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Buy (2)

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Gold Futures

1,852.62

+10.52 (+0.57%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (0)

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Silver Futures

21.880

+0.206 (+0.95%)

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↑ Buy

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Copper Futures

4.3055

+0.0013 (+0.03%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (8)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

110.91

+0.63 (+0.57%)

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↑ Buy

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Brent Oil Futures

110.73

+0.74 (+0.67%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (6)

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Natural Gas Futures

8.195

-0.205 (-2.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

216.48

-2.22 (-1.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,657.03

+16.48 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

3,901.36

+0.57 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,981.91

+99.61 (+0.72%)

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Buy

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

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FTSE 100

7,389.98

+87.24 (+1.19%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (3)

Sell (9)

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Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,350.10

-367.14 (-1.77%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,773.27

-2.96 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,484.50

+78.50 (+0.93%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.850

-0.010 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Buy (6)

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Bayer AG NA

63.74

+0.34 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

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Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

195.58

+0.78 (+0.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

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Adidas AG

172.80

+0.92 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.852

+0.049 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

115.08

+2.62 (+2.33%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (3)

Sell (9)

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Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.362

-0.130 (-1.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0594↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2549↑ Buy
 USD/JPY127.38↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7090↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2800Buy
 EUR/JPY134.94↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0293↑ Sell
 Gold1,852.62↑ Sell
 Silver21.880↑ Buy
 Copper4.3055↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI110.91↑ Buy
 Brent Oil110.73↑ Buy
 Natural Gas8.195↑ Buy
 US Coffee C216.48↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,657.03↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,901.36↑ Buy
 DAX13,981.91Buy
 FTSE 1007,389.98Neutral
 Hang Seng20,350.10↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,773.27↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,484.50Neutral
 BASF48.850Buy
 Bayer63.74Buy
 Allianz195.58Buy
 Adidas172.80Buy
 Lufthansa6.852↑ Sell
 Siemens AG115.08Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.362Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,880/ 6,980
(5/ 5) # 1,773
SJC HCM6,895/ 6,985
(0/ 0) # 1,777
SJC Hanoi6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,779
SJC Danang6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,779
SJC Nhatrang6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,779
SJC Cantho6,895/ 6,987
(0/ 0) # 1,779
Cập nhật 23-05-2022 11:39:46
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,854.65+8.830.48%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V30.58031.190
RON 95-III29.98030.570
E5 RON 92-II28.95029.520
DO 0.05S26.65027.180
DO 0,001S-V27.45027.990
Dầu hỏa 2-K25.16025.660
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$110.28-0.57-0.52%
Brent$111.10-0.56-0.51%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.005,0023.315,00
EUR23.899,8625.238,69
GBP28.277,1029.483,51
JPY176,47186,83
KRW15,8019,25
Cập nhật lúc 11:34:53 23/05/2022
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