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Australia forecasts record mining, energy export sales for 2023

By Sonali Paul MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia's mining and energy export revenues are forecast to climb 3% to a record A$419 billion ($286 billion) in the year to June 2023,...
Australia forecasts record mining, energy export sales for 2023 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A stacker/reclaimer places coal in stockpiles at the coal port in Newcastle June 6, 2012. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz/File Photo

By Sonali Paul

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia's mining and energy export revenues are forecast to climb 3% to a record A$419 billion ($286 billion) in the year to June 2023, buoyed by surging coal and gas prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the government said on Monday.

Sanctions on Russia for what Moscow calls a "special military operation" to disarm Ukraine have sent prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal to all-time highs, underpinning record revenue for Australia's second- and third-largest exports.

"The outlook is for the prices of energy commodities to remain strong for longer than previously forecast, as Western nations look for alternatives to Russian energy supplies," the Department of Industry said in its resources and energy quarterly report.

However it said higher global interest rates to combat inflation could hurt global economic activity and in turn lower resource and energy export earnings.

The value of LNG exports is forecast to jump 19% to A$84 billion in the year to June 2023, even as volumes are expected to slip by 3% with output declining from gas fields feeding the North West Shelf and Darwin LNG plants.

Exports of thermal coal used in power generation are expected to rise 15% to A$44 billion on strong prices and a small rise in volume, as Australian coal is considered the main alternative to Russia's higher coal grades, the government said.

Revenue from metallurgical coal used in steelmaking is forecast to climb 3% to A$60 billion.

"With inventories of energy in the Northern Hemisphere well below normal, any supply disruptions will result in more price surges," the report said, pointing to potential declines in coal output due to heavy rains lashing eastern Australia.

Offsetting gains in LNG and coal, the value of Australia's top export earner, iron ore, is expected to fall by 12% to A$116 billion in the year to June 2023, with the average price seen falling to $99 a tonne from $119.

($1 = 1.4676 Australian dollars)

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 EUR/USD1.0790Neutral
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 USD/JPY151.43↑ Buy
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 EUR/JPY163.37↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9728↑ Sell
 Gold2,254.80↑ Buy
 Silver25.100↑ Buy
 Copper4.0115↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.11↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.99Neutral
 Natural Gas1.752↑ Sell
 US Coffee C188.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 505,082.85↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,254.35↑ Sell
 DAX18,504.51↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,952.62↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,541.42Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,120.15Neutral
 IBEX 3511,074.60↑ Sell
 BASF52.930↑ Buy
 Bayer28.43Buy
 Allianz277.80↑ Buy
 Adidas207.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.281↑ Sell
 Siemens AG176.96↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG14.582↑ Buy
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