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Asia share markets fret on China COVID outbreaks, Fed outlook

Monday, November 21, 2022
Asia share markets fret on China COVID outbreaks, Fed outlook © Reuters. An investor watches stock prices at a brokerage office in Beijing, China July 6, 2018. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo
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By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets turned hesitant on Monday as investors fretted about the economic fallout from fresh COVID-19 restrictions in China, while bonds and the dollar braced for more updates on U.S. monetary policy.

Beijing's most populous district urged residents to stay at home on Monday as the city's COVID case numbers rose, while at least one district in Guangzhou was locked down for five days.]

The rash of outbreaks across the country has been a setback to hopes for an early easing in strict pandemic restrictions, one reason cited for a 10% slide in oil prices last week.

It also dragged MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan off a two-month high, though it still ended firmer on the week. Early Monday, the index was down 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei added 0.3%, while South Korea eased 0.4%.

S&P 500 futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures slipped 0.1% in quiet trade.

The Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday combined with the distraction of the soccer World Cup could make for thin trading, while Black Friday sales will offer an insight into how consumers are faring and the outlook for retail stocks.

Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting are due on Wednesday and could sound hawkish, judging by how officials have pushed back against market easing in recent days.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Saturday said he was ready to step down to a half-point hike in December but also underlined that rates would likely stay high for longer than markets expected.

Futures imply a 76% chance of a rise of 50 basis points to 4.25-4.5% and a peak for rates around 5.0-5.25%. They also have rate cuts priced in for late next year.

"We are comfortable that the deceleration under way in U.S. inflation and European growth produces a moderation in the pace of tightening starting next month," said Bruce Kasman, head of research at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM).

"But for central banks to pause they also need clear evidence that labour markets are easing," he added. "The latest reports in the U.S., euro area, and U.K. point to only a limited moderation in labour demand, while news on wages points to sustained pressures."

There are at least four Fed officials scheduled to speak this week, a teaser ahead of a speech by Chair Jerome Powell on Nov. 30 that will define the outlook for rates at the December policy meeting.

PRICED FOR RECESSION

Bond markets clearly think the Fed will tighten too far and tip the economy into recession as the yield curve is the most inverse it has been in 40 years.

On Monday, 10-year note yields of 3.84% were trading 71 basis points below the two-year.

The Fed chorus has helped the dollar stabilise after its recent sharp sell-off, though speculative positioning in futures has turned net short on the currency for the first time since mid-2021.

Early Monday, the dollar was a touch softer at 140.26 yen, after last week's bounce from a low of 137.67. The euro held at $1.0327, and short of the recent four-month top of $1.1481. [FRX/]

The U.S. dollar index stood at 106.900, off last week's trough of 105.300.

"Given how far U.S. bond yields and the dollar have dropped in the past couple of weeks, we think there is a good chance that they rebound if the Fed minutes are in line with the recent hawkish language from members," said Jonas Goltermann, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics.

Meanwhile, turmoil in cryptocurrencies continued unabated with the FTX exchange, which has filed for U.S. bankruptcy court protection, saying it owes its 50 biggest creditors nearly $3.1 billion.

In commodity markets, gold was a fraction firmer at $1,751 an ounce, after dipping 1.2% last week. [GOL/]

Oil futures were trying to find a floor after last week's drubbing saw Brent lose 9% and WTI roughly 10%.

Brent edged up 18 cents to $87.80, while U.S. crude added 10 cents to $80.18 per barrel. [O/R]

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26-11-2022 19:25:26 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0402

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0402

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2095

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

139.12

+0.51 (+0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

AUD/USD

0.6751

-0.0013 (-0.18%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3377

+0.0040 (+0.30%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

EUR/JPY

144.66

+0.40 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/CHF

0.9835

+0.0019 (+0.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,755.00

+9.40 (+0.54%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

21.480

+0.113 (+0.53%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (10)

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Copper Futures

3.6175

-0.0005 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

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Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

76.55

-1.39 (-1.78%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

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Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

83.91

-1.43 (-1.68%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Sell (8)

Natural Gas Futures

6.802

-0.506 (-6.92%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

164.40

+1.65 (+1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,962.41

+0.42 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,026.12

-1.14 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

DAX

14,541.38

+1.82 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,486.67

+20.07 (+0.27%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

17,573.58

-87.32 (-0.49%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Small Cap 2000

1,869.19

+6.37 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

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Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,416.60

+37.20 (+0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

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Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.605

-0.280 (-0.56%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Bayer AG NA

55.45

-0.06 (-0.11%)

Summary

Sell

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

205.35

+0.40 (+0.20%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

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Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

123.98

-2.68 (-2.12%)

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Neutral

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Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.567

+0.036 (+0.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

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Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Siemens AG Class N

132.06

+1.10 (+0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.390

+0.020 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0402 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2095 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 139.12 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6751 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3377 Sell  
    EUR/JPY 144.66 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9835 Neutral  
    Gold 1,755.00 Sell  
    Silver 21.480 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.6175 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 76.55 Buy  
    Brent Oil 83.91 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 6.802 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 164.40 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,962.41 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,026.12 Neutral  
    DAX 14,541.38 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,486.67 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,573.58 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 1,869.19 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,416.60 Sell  
    BASF 49.605 Neutral  
    Bayer 55.45 Sell  
    Allianz 205.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 123.98 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.567 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 132.06 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.390 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,660/ 6,730
(0/ 0) # 1,488
SJC HCM6,660/ 6,760
(-10/ -10) # 1,510
SJC Hanoi6,660/ 6,762
(-10/ -10) # 1,512
SJC Danang6,660/ 6,762
(-10/ -10) # 1,512
SJC Nhatrang6,660/ 6,762
(-10/ -10) # 1,512
SJC Cantho6,660/ 6,762
(-10/ -10) # 1,512
Cập nhật 26-11-2022 19:25:28
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,754.60 -0.88 -0.05%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.91025.400
RON 95-III23.78024.250
E5 RON 92-II22.67023.120
DO 0.05S24.80025.290
DO 0,001S-V26.78027.310
Dầu hỏa 2-K24.64025.130
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $76.55 +2.23 2.91%
Brent $83.84 +1.91 2.28%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.570,0024.840,00
EUR25.158,7926.565,16
GBP29.229,5930.473,22
JPY173,58183,74
KRW16,1719,70
Cập nhật lúc 18:00:47 26/11/2022
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