Asia FX Slips as Weak China Data Weighs, Fed Meeting Awaited

© Reuters.

By Ambar Warrick

AiVIF.com-- Most Asian currencies retreated on Monday as weak Chinese economic data weighed on sentiment, while markets hunkered down ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting starting this week.

China’s yuan fell 0.2%, while the offshore yuan lost 0.2% after data showed the country’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly shrank in October. Overall business activity also unexpectedly contracted as several economic hubs experienced a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

The reading ramped up concerns over slowing economic activity in China, with the country still reeling from a slew of lockdowns this year. Economic hubs including Wuhan and Chengdu recently reintroduced COVID curbs after a rise in infections.

Investors remain wary of any further economic disruptions in China, particularly after Beijing reiterated its commitment to its strict zero-COVID policy.

Weakness in Chinese markets spilled over to broader Asia. The Indian rupee fell 0.1%, while the Taiwan dollar slipped 0.4%.

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% after data showed industrial production slowed even further in September, with the outlook for the next two months remaining subdued. Rising inflation and a dovish outlook from the Bank of Japan weighed heavily on the yen this year, with the currency trading near its weakest level in 32 years.

The dollar traded flat on Monday, with the dollar index and dollar index futures hovering around the 110 level. The greenback is expected to firm in the coming days as traders anticipate an at least 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Still, markets are also betting that signs of some easing inflationary pressures will push the Fed into softening its hawkish stance in the coming months. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields fell from multi-year highs in October on that notion.

But the outlook for Asian currencies remains constrained, especially with U.S. interest rates set to stay high for at least the next year. Rising interest rates caused sharp losses in Asian currencies this year.

Among Antipodean currencies, the Australian dollar rose 0.1% after data showed retail sales grew more than expected in September, strengthening the outlook for the Australian economy.

The positive reading also shows that the Reserve Bank of Australia has enough economic headroom to keep raising interest rates to battle inflation.