binance left Huobi Global Coinmarketcap net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Analysis-U.S. bond investors worry deep slide will end 40-year bull market

29 Tháng Tư 2022
Analysis-U.S. bond investors worry deep slide will end 40-year bull market © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Charging Bull or Wall Street Bull is pictured in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., January 16, 2019. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

By David Randall

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The 40-year bull market in U.S. bonds is dead. Long live the bond bull market.

The U.S. Treasuries market began 2022 with one of its biggest slides in history. Some bond investors are again worried that the end is at hand for the decades-long run in U.S. debt, which took yields on the benchmark 10-year note from a high of 15.3% in 1981 to 0.54% in March 2020.

But U.S. Treasury bears have a spotty track record on Wall Street. The bond market has invariably bounced back from past selloffs thanks in part to modest economic growth rates and a comparatively dovish Fed.

The bearish view has gained traction now, however, as the Federal Reserve signals it is ready to employ big rate hikes and a speedy unwind of its balance sheet to bring down inflation from 40-year peaks.

"Bonds were the bull market for the last 40 years, but they will be one of the bear markets of the 2020s," said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Global Research.

GRAPHIC: Bond bull market done? https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zjpqkmnompx/Pasted%20image%201651078621646.png

Yields on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury - which move inversely to prices - are up 136 basis points this year at 2.87%. The ICE (NYSE:ICE) BoFA US Treasury Index has dropped near its lowest levels since May 2019.

Bonds were one of the largest short positions among global fund managers in a recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) survey. Investors have pulled money from bond funds on net for the last 10 weeks, the longest losing streak since the end of 2013, ICI data showed. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NASDAQ:TLT) ETF, the most heavily traded bond-focused exchange traded fund, is down 18% this year.

Hartnett believes 10-year yields could hit 5% in coming years, noting there may be tactical buying opportunities despite the bearish secular outlook. Such a move would put yields at their highest level since 2007.

Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) analysts echoed the forecast of a 5% Treasury yield peak in a note earlier this week, which also said aggressive Fed tightening could send the economy into a “significant recession” next year.

Another red flag: comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this month on “front-end loading” the Fed’s hiking cycle. Some investors have now penciled in 75 basis point increases at the Fed's June and July meetings, following an expected 50 basis point hike at next week’s Fed meeting.[L2N2WK1MC]

A sustained period of bond weakness could have far reaching effects, from weighing on companies’ borrowing costs to hurting investors’ portfolios.

Treasury holdings among individual investors and mutual funds stood at $4.39 trillion at the end of 2021, data from Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association showed. Bonds overall make up some 20% of 401(k) accounts, according to Morningstar.

“People are going to face for the first time in decades what it means to have significant declines in their bond portfolios," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at the Leuthold Group. "It’s unique, it’s outsized, and it hurts.”

For stocks, the impact of higher Treasury yields has depended on whether they are accompanied by rising consumer prices, a study by LPL Financial (NASDAQ:LPLA) showed – potentially spelling troubling for equities in today's super-charged inflationary environment.

Stocks notched an average gain of 6.4% in 13 periods of rising bond yields between 1962 and 2016, compared to the index’s long-term average of 7.1% during that period, the 2021 study showed.

When yields rose and inflation was high, however, the average annual return fell to -0.4%.

The view that bonds are headed for years of losses is far from universal. Some investors believe the Fed will successfully tame inflation, allowing them to eventually pull back on monetary policy tightening. [L2N2WJ0W3]

Andy McCormick (NYSE:MKC), head of Global Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price, said his funds have been buying 10-year Treasuries, gauging that much of the Fed’s tightening is already priced in.

The selloff may also be attracting foreign buyers into Treasuries, potentially helping stabilize prices – at least in the short term.

A NatWest’s report said the 3% mark - which yields have failed to breach - may be a “psychological level” that draws foreign buyers.

Demand from foreign buyers at the two-year Treasury auction earlier this week was the second highest ever in percentage terms, said Lou Brien, a strategist at DRW Trading Group.

GRAPHIC: Foreign holdings of Treasury securities https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BONDS/lbvgnyjjwpq/chart.png

Ash Alankar, Head of Global Asset Allocation at Janus Henderson, plans to buy bonds when real yields – a measure of Treasury yields adjusted for inflation -- turn positive for a sustained period.

“Bonds won't have the same historic return in the decade ahead, but they will still be attractive," he said.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot ig right nyse right Neteller Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
rakuten_main right top net_home_top Ai VIF Binance _ main right top fbs_main right top tifia_main right top
21-05-2022 04:08:36 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0562

-0.0024 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0562

-0.0024 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2489

+0.0029 (+0.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

127.86

+0.07 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.7039

-0.0008 (-0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.2839

+0.0014 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

135.05

-0.24 (-0.18%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

1.0296

-0.0005 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,845.17

+3.97 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

21.740

-0.168 (-0.77%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (3)

Copper Futures

4.3042

+0.0212 (+0.49%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

110.31

+0.42 (+0.38%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Brent Oil Futures

112.66

+0.62 (+0.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

8.064

-0.244 (-2.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

216.48

-2.22 (-1.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,657.03

+16.48 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

3,901.36

+0.57 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

DAX

13,981.91

+99.61 (+0.72%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,389.98

+87.24 (+1.19%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

20,717.24

+596.56 (+2.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

US Small Cap 2000

1,768.35

-7.87 (-0.44%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,484.50

+78.50 (+0.93%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

BASF SE NA O.N.

48.850

-0.010 (-0.02%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Bayer AG NA

63.74

+0.34 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

195.58

+0.78 (+0.40%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

172.80

+0.92 (+0.54%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.852

+0.049 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

115.08

+2.62 (+2.33%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.362

-0.130 (-1.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

 EUR/USD1.0562↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2489Neutral
 USD/JPY127.86Neutral
 AUD/USD0.7039Sell
 USD/CAD1.2839↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY135.05Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0296↑ Buy
 Gold1,845.17↑ Buy
 Silver21.740Sell
 Copper4.3042↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI110.31↑ Sell
 Brent Oil112.66↑ Sell
 Natural Gas8.064↑ Sell
 US Coffee C216.48↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,657.03↑ Buy
 S&P 5003,901.36↑ Buy
 DAX13,981.91Buy
 FTSE 1007,389.98Neutral
 Hang Seng20,717.24↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,768.35↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,484.50Neutral
 BASF48.850Buy
 Bayer63.74Buy
 Allianz195.58Buy
 Adidas172.80Buy
 Lufthansa6.852↑ Sell
 Siemens AG115.08Neutral
 Deutsche Bank AG9.362Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,875/ 6,975
(0/ 0) # 1,795
SJC HCM6,890/ 6,980
(0/ 0) # 1,798
SJC Hanoi6,890/ 6,982
(0/ 0) # 1,800
SJC Danang6,890/ 6,982
(0/ 0) # 1,800
SJC Nhatrang6,890/ 6,982
(0/ 0) # 1,800
SJC Cantho6,890/ 6,982
(0/ 0) # 1,800
Cập nhật 21-05-2022 04:08:38
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,846.53+4.270.23%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V30.58031.190
RON 95-III29.98030.570
E5 RON 92-II28.95029.520
DO 0.05S26.65027.180
DO 0,001S-V27.45027.990
Dầu hỏa 2-K25.16025.660
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$110.53-0.11-0.10%
Brent$112.89-0.31-0.27%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.000,0023.310,00
EUR23.879,5425.217,23
GBP28.128,1029.328,16
JPY176,49186,84
KRW15,8019,26
Cập nhật lúc 18:52:01 20/05/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
binance main right Fxpro Main Right aetos main right Phương Thức Thanh Toán